God is my Judge

Yards Per Play College Football Rankings 12/2/09

Methodology

This is a new system for ranking college teams, as far as I know. The basic system is to use the yards per play of the offense and given up by the defense as the metric. I am assuming that most of the time, the offense's objective is to get as many yards as possible, and the defense's objective is to give up as few yards as possible.

With that in mind, I compiled the yards gained and given up per play by all of the college football teams this year. Then, I ran an algorithm to adjust for the opponents--the system of adjusting is known as the simple rating system. The final rating is the yards/play, with the average of the opponents faced added on.

For example: Florida's raw yards per play on offense is 6.46. The average FBS team's offense gains 5.58 yards per play on offense, so Florida's yards per play above average is 0.87. The defenses Florida has faced thus far this season have avereaged giving up 0.47 yards per play less than average, so Florida's adjusted yards per play above average for their offense is 1.35. The same system is used for all teams.

The pace is calculated as the average number of plays per game divided by the average team's number of plays per game.

The source data is from http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp.

I have now added penalties and interceptions to the calculation. The penalties I just remove across the board like any other yards; the interceptions are more complicated. I subtract 30 yards from the offense for each interception and add 10 yards to the defense--this is after adjusting the interception-per-play rates according to the opposition. The theory is that the offense is 3 times as important as the defense in causing an interception--interception rates of the offense correlate with future interception rates far better than interception rates of the defense correlate with future interception rates of the defense. Interceptions are worth about 60 yards; I cut their value in half for the offense because they are about half as consistent as yards/play in my analyses.

Definitions:

  • Total is the total yards-per-play margin of the team, fully adjusted
  • Offense is the yards-per-play above average of the team, fully adjusted
  • Defense is the yards-per-play above average of the team, fully adjusted
  • Points is the Total converted into an actual point spread. To predict a margin for a game, simply subtract the point ratings from one another; add 3 points to the home team
  • Raw is the raw yards-per-play margin
  • SOS is the strength-of-schedule adjustment for opposition offenses and defenses
  • Subtot is the adjusted yards-per-play margin of the team, not including interceptions or penalties. This is the same as the initial yards-per-play rankings I used last week.
  • Int+Pen is the adjustment for interceptions and penalties. (So Total = Raw + SOS + Int+Pen)

Yards Per Play College Football Rankings

< Previous Week
Rank Prev
Team
 Total Rank Offense Rank Defense Rank Points Raw Rank SOS Rank Subtot Rank Prev Int+Pen Rank
1 1
Florida
 3.64 1 1.68 5 -1.96 2 31.4 2.64 1 0.57 23 3.20 1 1 0.44 4
2 2
Alabama
 3.23 2 1.11 12 -2.12 1 27.9 1.98 4 0.77 11 2.75 2 2 0.49 3
3 3
Cincinnati
 2.66 3 2.05 1 -0.61 28 22.9 2.37 3 -0.04 74 2.33 4 4 0.33 8
4 5
TCU
 2.59 4 1.29 10 -1.30 11 22.3 2.57 2 -0.27 87 2.30 5 5 0.29 14
5 4
Texas
 2.58 5 0.86 20 -1.71 3 22.2 1.85 5 0.55 24 2.40 3 3 0.18 31
6 6
Oregon
 2.41 6 1.03 16 -1.38 8 20.8 1.44 8 0.74 14 2.18 6 6 0.23 24
7 7
Virginia Tech
 2.09 7 1.33 8 -0.76 22 18.0 1.36 11 0.44 34 1.80 11 9 0.29 15
8 8
Penn St.
 2.05 8 1.06 14 -0.99 16 17.7 1.75 6 0.01 67 1.76 14 11 0.29 11
9 9
Tennessee
 2.03 9 0.91 18 -1.12 13 17.5 0.91 20 0.97 6 1.87 9 14 0.16 37
10 12
Auburn
 1.96 10 1.32 9 -0.64 27 16.8 0.89 21 0.89 8 1.78 12 18 0.18 32
11 11
Ohio St.
 1.84 11 0.25 49 -1.59 5 15.9 1.31 12 0.28 46 1.59 17 17 0.25 20
12 10
Arkansas
 1.81 12 1.83 2 0.01 59 15.6 0.71 30 1.00 5 1.71 15 12 0.10 45
13 13
Mississippi
 1.76 13 0.73 26 -1.03 15 15.2 1.17 16 0.60 20 1.76 13 15 0.00 61
14 17
Oklahoma
 1.73 14 0.09 59 -1.64 4 14.9 1.27 13 0.75 13 2.03 7 7 -0.30 105
15 14
Boise St.
 1.68 15 0.91 19 -0.77 21 14.5 1.59 7 -0.27 88 1.33 21 21 0.35 6
16 16
Southern California
 1.62 16 0.84 21 -0.78 20 13.9 1.37 10 0.51 27 1.88 8 8 -0.26 103
17 15
Pittsburgh
 1.58 17 1.04 15 -0.54 33 13.6 1.40 9 0.01 68 1.41 18 19 0.17 35
18 19
LSU
 1.58 18 0.30 44 -1.28 12 13.6 0.29 49 1.00 4 1.29 22 24 0.28 16
19 18
Clemson
 1.48 19 0.19 53 -1.30 10 12.8 0.86 23 0.35 42 1.22 23 22 0.26 19
20 22
South Carolina
 1.42 20 0.35 40 -1.07 14 12.3 0.33 48 1.05 3 1.38 19 20 0.05 53
Rank Prev
Team
 Total Rank Offense Rank Defense Rank Points Raw Rank SOS Rank Subtot Rank Prev Int+Pen Rank
21 26
Georgia
 1.35 21 0.64 29 -0.71 23 11.6 0.75 27 1.13 2 1.87 10 10 -0.52 120
22 21
Stanford
 1.29 22 1.70 4 0.41 88 11.1 0.51 40 0.49 29 1.00 28 25 0.29 13
23 20
Nebraska
 1.26 23 -0.13 70 -1.39 7 10.9 0.99 18 0.38 38 1.37 20 16 -0.11 76
24 23
Texas Tech
 1.18 24 0.52 37 -0.66 26 10.1 1.25 14 0.36 41 1.62 16 13 -0.44 117
25 25
California
 1.10 25 0.98 17 -0.12 53 9.5 0.52 37 0.33 44 0.85 34 31 0.25 21
26 24
Georgia Tech
 1.08 26 1.47 7 0.39 86 9.3 0.28 50 0.48 33 0.76 37 37 0.32 9
27 29
West Virginia
 1.08 27 0.52 38 -0.56 31 9.3 0.58 34 0.27 47 0.86 32 33 0.22 26
28 27
Arizona
 1.07 28 0.56 33 -0.52 35 9.2 0.47 41 0.37 40 0.84 35 30 0.23 23
29 28
Missouri
 1.03 29 0.52 39 -0.51 37 8.9 0.69 32 0.34 43 1.02 27 27 0.01 60
30 30
Oklahoma St.
 1.00 30 0.08 60 -0.92 18 8.6 0.55 36 0.52 26 1.07 26 28 -0.07 72
31 32
BYU
 0.98 31 0.58 31 -0.39 42 8.4 1.22 15 0.00 70 1.21 24 23 -0.24 95
32 35
Nevada
 0.94 32 1.74 3 0.80 102 8.1 1.06 17 -0.19 82 0.87 31 34 0.07 50
33 37
Miami (FL)
 0.94 33 0.54 34 -0.40 40 8.1 0.78 26 0.42 36 1.20 25 26 -0.26 101
34 38
Houston
 0.93 34 1.65 6 0.72 100 8.0 0.87 22 -0.38 96 0.49 44 47 0.43 5
35 31
Oregon St.
 0.93 35 0.57 32 -0.36 43 8.0 0.44 44 0.33 45 0.77 36 38 0.16 36
36 34
Iowa
 0.88 36 -0.46 88 -1.34 9 7.6 0.61 33 0.25 48 0.86 33 35 0.02 58
37 36
Michigan St.
 0.87 37 0.79 23 -0.09 55 7.5 0.83 25 0.17 53 1.00 29 29 -0.13 81
38 33
Utah
 0.82 38 0.16 54 -0.66 24 7.1 0.91 19 -0.01 71 0.90 30 32 -0.08 73
39 41
Notre Dame
 0.80 39 1.06 13 0.26 78 6.9 0.04 61 0.54 25 0.58 42 43 0.22 27
40 39
Mississippi St.
 0.77 40 0.26 47 -0.50 38 6.6 -0.40 82 1.14 1 0.74 38 39 0.03 56
Rank Prev
Team
 Total Rank Offense Rank Defense Rank Points Raw Rank SOS Rank Subtot Rank Prev Int+Pen Rank
41 43
Purdue
 0.69 41 0.27 46 -0.43 39 6.0 0.09 56 0.51 28 0.60 41 42 0.10 47
42 40
Kansas
 0.69 42 0.68 28 -0.01 58 5.9 0.06 58 0.48 32 0.54 43 44 0.15 39
43 45
Wisconsin
 0.61 43 0.30 45 -0.32 46 5.3 0.34 47 0.15 57 0.49 46 45 0.13 43
44 42
Kentucky
 0.61 44 0.21 50 -0.39 41 5.2 -0.64 93 0.95 7 0.31 51 49 0.30 10
45 44
UCLA
 0.51 45 -0.14 72 -0.66 25 4.4 -0.33 80 0.76 12 0.44 49 46 0.08 49
46 46
Connecticut
 0.49 46 0.58 30 0.09 63 4.2 -0.20 73 0.40 37 0.20 54 54 0.29 12
47 51
Texas A&M
 0.45 47 0.72 27 0.26 77 3.9 -0.33 81 0.69 16 0.36 50 56 0.10 48
48 47
South Fla.
 0.40 48 -0.16 76 -0.56 30 3.5 0.71 29 -0.05 76 0.66 40 36 -0.26 102
49 49
Central Mich.
 0.40 49 0.33 42 -0.07 56 3.4 0.85 24 -0.58 111 0.28 52 50 0.12 44
50 48
Boston College
 0.40 50 -0.49 89 -0.88 19 3.4 0.36 45 0.12 61 0.49 45 40 -0.09 75
51 53
North Carolina
 0.31 51 -1.17 111 -1.48 6 2.7 0.46 42 -0.02 72 0.45 48 55 -0.13 82
52 52
Air Force
 0.24 52 -0.35 81 -0.60 29 2.1 0.01 62 -0.27 89 -0.26 74 74 0.51 2
53 56
Arizona St.
 0.22 53 -0.70 101 -0.92 17 1.9 0.09 57 0.59 22 0.68 39 41 -0.46 118
54 54
Troy
 0.13 54 0.54 35 0.40 87 1.1 0.51 39 -0.24 85 0.28 53 51 -0.15 84
55 58
Vanderbilt
 0.12 55 -0.42 85 -0.54 32 1.1 -0.74 95 0.71 15 -0.03 64 64 0.15 38
56 55
Southern Miss.
 0.11 56 0.21 51 0.10 64 0.9 0.57 35 -0.51 108 0.06 58 58 0.05 51
57 61
Middle Tenn.
 0.11 57 -0.41 84 -0.52 36 0.9 0.75 28 -0.57 110 0.17 55 61 -0.06 70
58 63
Baylor
 0.08 58 -0.09 66 -0.17 50 0.7 -0.23 75 0.69 17 0.45 47 48 -0.37 113
59 59
Rutgers
 0.05 59 -0.28 77 -0.34 44 0.5 0.16 55 -0.37 95 -0.21 73 76 0.27 17
60 50
North Carolina St.
 0.05 60 0.31 43 0.26 76 0.4 -0.23 74 0.18 52 -0.05 66 52 0.10 46
Rank Prev
Team
 Total Rank Offense Rank Defense Rank Points Raw Rank SOS Rank Subtot Rank Prev Int+Pen Rank
61 57
Wake Forest
 0.02 61 0.09 58 0.06 62 0.2 -0.19 69 0.19 51 0.00 60 59 0.02 59
62 65
Louisiana Tech
 -0.01 62 -0.30 78 -0.29 48 -0.1 -0.31 78 0.04 66 -0.27 75 77 0.26 18
63 66
Michigan
 -0.05 63 0.05 62 0.10 65 -0.4 -0.19 71 0.15 58 -0.04 65 65 -0.01 62
64 68
Hawaii
 -0.05 64 0.53 36 0.58 95 -0.5 0.70 31 -0.70 117 0.00 62 63 -0.05 67
65 64
Navy
 -0.10 65 0.15 56 0.24 75 -0.8 -0.44 84 -0.30 90 -0.75 97 94 0.65 1
66 60
Florida St.
 -0.11 66 1.12 11 1.23 117 -1.0 -0.58 90 0.64 18 0.06 57 57 -0.17 87
67 67
Fresno St.
 -0.12 67 0.75 25 0.87 106 -1.1 -0.20 72 -0.10 78 -0.29 76 75 0.17 34
68 70
Kansas St.
 -0.16 68 -0.12 69 0.03 61 -1.4 -0.33 79 0.14 59 -0.19 71 70 0.03 55
69 62
UCF
 -0.17 69 -0.50 91 -0.33 45 -1.5 -0.05 64 -0.31 93 -0.36 78 72 0.19 28
70 75
Washington
 -0.19 70 0.25 48 0.44 93 -1.6 -0.86 100 0.85 10 -0.01 63 68 -0.18 89
71 84
Illinois
 -0.20 71 0.15 55 0.35 85 -1.7 -0.60 92 0.60 19 0.00 61 69 -0.20 92
72 83
UAB
 -0.22 72 0.82 22 1.04 110 -1.9 0.24 51 -0.31 91 -0.06 68 73 -0.16 86
73 69
Idaho
 -0.26 73 0.78 24 1.04 111 -2.3 0.35 46 -0.23 84 0.13 56 53 -0.39 114
74 79
Syracuse
 -0.29 74 -0.38 83 -0.10 54 -2.5 -0.49 87 0.38 39 -0.11 69 67 -0.17 88
75 72
Buffalo
 -0.30 75 -0.10 67 0.20 71 -2.6 0.45 43 -0.50 106 -0.05 67 62 -0.26 100
76 77
Northwestern
 -0.31 76 -0.33 80 -0.01 57 -2.7 -0.49 86 -0.04 75 -0.53 86 89 0.22 25
77 81
Minnesota
 -0.36 77 -0.67 99 -0.31 47 -3.1 -0.60 91 0.48 31 -0.11 70 66 -0.25 98
78 74
La.-Monroe
 -0.38 78 -0.51 92 -0.13 52 -3.3 0.51 38 -0.48 105 0.04 59 60 -0.42 115
79 76
Duke
 -0.38 79 -0.15 73 0.23 74 -3.3 -0.44 83 -0.14 80 -0.57 92 90 0.19 29
80 71
Tulsa
 -0.40 80 -0.05 64 0.35 84 -3.4 -0.12 65 -0.42 101 -0.54 87 78 0.14 40
Rank Prev
Team
 Total Rank Offense Rank Defense Rank Points Raw Rank SOS Rank Subtot Rank Prev Int+Pen Rank
81 78
Colorado St.
 -0.41 81 -0.14 71 0.27 79 -3.5 -0.18 68 -0.03 73 -0.21 72 71 -0.20 93
82 82
Virginia
 -0.41 82 -0.94 105 -0.53 34 -3.5 -1.03 102 0.49 30 -0.55 88 86 0.14 41
83 85
Northern Ill.
 -0.44 83 -0.16 75 0.28 80 -3.8 0.20 53 -0.66 115 -0.46 83 84 0.03 57
84 92
Ohio
 -0.44 84 -0.65 98 -0.21 49 -3.8 0.18 54 -0.50 107 -0.32 77 91 -0.12 79
85 87
Indiana
 -0.44 85 -0.01 63 0.43 91 -3.8 -0.51 88 0.12 62 -0.39 79 81 -0.05 66
86 80
Louisville
 -0.49 86 -0.30 79 0.19 70 -4.3 -0.88 101 0.44 35 -0.44 81 79 -0.05 68
87 88
Utah St.
 -0.53 87 0.34 41 0.87 105 -4.6 -0.48 85 -0.08 77 -0.57 91 95 0.03 54
88 90
East Carolina
 -0.56 88 -0.43 86 0.13 67 -4.8 -0.19 70 -0.31 92 -0.50 85 87 -0.06 71
89 89
Iowa St.
 -0.57 89 -0.10 68 0.47 94 -4.9 -0.71 94 0.16 56 -0.55 89 88 -0.02 63
90 86
San Diego St.
 -0.60 90 -0.44 87 0.15 69 -5.2 -0.26 76 -0.22 83 -0.48 84 80 -0.11 78
91 73
Temple
 -0.69 91 -0.56 95 0.13 66 -6.0 0.06 59 -0.80 119 -0.74 96 82 0.05 52
92 99
UTEP
 -0.75 92 0.13 57 0.88 107 -6.4 -0.01 63 -0.43 104 -0.44 82 93 -0.31 108
93 91
Bowling Green
 -0.75 93 -0.05 65 0.70 98 -6.5 -0.80 98 -0.14 79 -0.94 99 97 0.18 30
94 94
Toledo
 -0.82 94 0.08 61 0.90 109 -7.1 0.23 52 -0.63 113 -0.40 80 83 -0.42 116
95 95
Maryland
 -0.85 95 -0.54 94 0.30 82 -7.3 -1.25 106 0.23 49 -1.02 101 102 0.17 33
96 93
SMU
 -0.85 96 -0.53 93 0.33 83 -7.4 0.05 60 -0.65 114 -0.61 93 85 -0.25 97
97 96
Arkansas St.
 -0.98 97 -0.69 100 0.28 81 -8.5 -0.28 77 -0.40 99 -0.68 94 96 -0.30 107
98 97
North Texas
 -1.01 98 -0.15 74 0.86 104 -8.7 -0.15 67 -0.56 109 -0.71 95 92 -0.31 109
99 106
Colorado
 -1.07 99 -1.22 114 -0.15 51 -9.3 -1.15 105 0.59 21 -0.56 90 98 -0.52 119
100 98
Akron
 -1.13 100 -1.00 107 0.13 68 -9.7 -0.55 89 -0.43 103 -0.97 100 100 -0.16 85
Rank Prev
Team
 Total Rank Offense Rank Defense Rank Points Raw Rank SOS Rank Subtot Rank Prev Int+Pen Rank
101 100
Kent St.
 -1.15 101 -1.12 109 0.03 60 -9.9 -0.12 66 -0.72 118 -0.84 98 99 -0.30 106
102 102
Wyoming
 -1.22 102 -1.00 106 0.22 73 -10.5 -1.41 111 0.06 64 -1.35 106 105 0.13 42
103 104
La.-Lafayette
 -1.32 103 -0.64 97 0.68 97 -11.3 -1.14 104 -0.42 102 -1.56 110 110 0.24 22
104 105
Army
 -1.38 104 -1.16 110 0.22 72 -11.9 -0.78 96 -0.94 120 -1.71 112 112 0.33 7
105 110
Memphis
 -1.39 105 -0.49 90 0.90 108 -11.9 -1.27 107 0.07 63 -1.20 103 108 -0.19 90
106 107
Western Mich.
 -1.43 106 -0.60 96 0.83 103 -12.3 -0.79 97 -0.60 112 -1.39 107 107 -0.04 64
107 103
New Mexico
 -1.47 107 -1.04 108 0.43 92 -12.7 -1.37 109 0.13 60 -1.23 104 103 -0.24 96
108 101
Marshall
 -1.49 108 -0.86 103 0.63 96 -12.8 -0.83 99 -0.32 94 -1.15 102 101 -0.34 112
109 108
UNLV
 -1.51 109 -0.35 82 1.16 116 -13.0 -1.58 112 0.17 54 -1.40 108 109 -0.11 77
110 109
Miami (OH)
 -1.61 110 -1.20 113 0.41 89 -13.9 -1.34 108 0.04 65 -1.30 105 104 -0.32 111
111 111
Fla. Atlantic
 -1.72 111 0.20 52 1.92 120 -14.8 -1.38 110 -0.14 81 -1.53 109 106 -0.19 91
112 112
Ball St.
 -1.77 112 -1.36 115 0.41 90 -15.3 -1.05 103 -0.66 116 -1.71 111 111 -0.06 69
113 114
Tulane
 -2.03 113 -0.94 104 1.10 112 -17.5 -1.59 113 -0.39 98 -1.98 113 114 -0.05 65
114 113
San Jose St.
 -2.17 114 -1.40 117 0.77 101 -18.7 -2.22 115 0.17 55 -2.05 114 113 -0.12 80
115 115
FIU
 -2.28 115 -1.17 112 1.11 114 -19.6 -2.41 116 0.22 50 -2.19 115 116 -0.08 74
116 116
Washington St.
 -2.53 116 -1.39 116 1.13 115 -21.8 -3.16 120 0.89 9 -2.27 116 115 -0.25 99
117 118
Western Ky.
 -2.63 117 -0.75 102 1.88 119 -22.7 -2.02 114 -0.40 100 -2.41 117 118 -0.22 94
118 117
Rice
 -2.64 118 -1.54 118 1.10 113 -22.8 -2.51 118 0.01 69 -2.50 118 117 -0.14 83
119 119
New Mexico St.
 -3.04 119 -2.33 120 0.72 99 -26.2 -2.46 117 -0.27 86 -2.73 119 119 -0.31 110
120 120
Eastern Mich.
 -3.23 120 -1.55 119 1.67 118 -27.8 -2.55 119 -0.38 97 -2.93 120 120 -0.30 104

 

 
© Daniel M., 2009